Bitcoin Signal Desk
Daily macro snapshot focused on liquidity, rates, dollar strength, and risk appetite.
Inspired by @Globalflows macro framework
Bitcoin acts as a macro liquidity release valve. It rises when the quantity of money increases and falls when liquidity contracts. It responds to real interest rates, becoming more attractive when real rates fall. It moves furthest when macro liquidity expands, because excess capital flows outward along the risk curve — from safe assets to risky ones — until it reaches bitcoin at the far end.
This is why bitcoin behaves like a high-beta macro asset rather than a traditional safe haven. These dynamics happen in sequence, so instead of letting every metric "vote equally," we respect that transmission order.
A note for Bitcoiners: While we believe bitcoin is fundamentally a risk-off asset — sound money with no counterparty risk — the reality is that 99% of investors don't see it that way yet. This tool helps explain why bitcoin's price behaves the way it does today, as capital flows treat it as one of the riskiest assets on the curve. Understanding this doesn't mean accepting it forever — just recognizing the game being played until bitcoin achieves broader recognition as a true safe haven.
We track bank reserves, Fed balance sheet, reverse repo, and Treasury cash. If liquidity is expanding, more capital can flow into assets — bitcoin has a tailwind. If contracting, capital gets pulled back.
Analogy: The fuel level in the tank.
We track real interest rates (most important — 3x weighted), nominal yields, yield curve shape, and inflation expectations. Falling real rates encourage risk-taking; rising real rates favor safe yield over speculation.
Analogy: The price at the pump.
We track credit spreads and funding stress. If credit is calm, liquidity flows smoothly along the risk curve to bitcoin. If credit is stressed, forced selling happens, leverage unwinds, and everything correlates down.
Key insight: Credit doesn't create bull markets — it prevents crashes or allows them. Even supportive liquidity can fail during credit stress.
Analogy: The circuit breaker.
We track SPY, QQQ/ARKK, and VIX. When liquidity expands, capital flows from safe assets → equities → speculative tech → bitcoin. Risk assets confirm this transmission is happening.
Key insight: Risk markets do NOT decide the regime — they show whether capital is actually flowing along the curve.
Analogy: The speedometer.
We track the dollar index and USD/JPY. A strong dollar tightens global conditions; a weak dollar loosens them. FX supports or contradicts the macro picture but does not override it.
Analogy: Headwind or tailwind.
Key drivers receive higher weights based on their historical correlation with Bitcoin price movements.
Bitcoin acts as a macro liquidity release valve. It rises when the quantity of money increases and falls when liquidity contracts. It responds to real interest rates, becoming more attractive when real rates fall. It moves furthest when macro liquidity expands, because excess capital flows outward along the risk curve — from safe assets to risky ones — until it reaches bitcoin at the far end.
This is why bitcoin behaves like a high-beta macro asset rather than a traditional safe haven. These dynamics happen in sequence, so instead of letting every metric "vote equally," we respect that transmission order.
A note for Bitcoiners: While we believe bitcoin is fundamentally a risk-off asset — sound money with no counterparty risk — the reality is that 99% of investors don't see it that way yet. This tool helps explain why bitcoin's price behaves the way it does today, as capital flows treat it as one of the riskiest assets on the curve. Understanding this doesn't mean accepting it forever — just recognizing the game being played until bitcoin achieves broader recognition as a true safe haven.
We track bank reserves, Fed balance sheet, reverse repo, and Treasury cash. If liquidity is expanding, more capital can flow into assets — bitcoin has a tailwind. If contracting, capital gets pulled back.
Analogy: The fuel level in the tank.
We track real interest rates (most important — 3x weighted), nominal yields, yield curve shape, and inflation expectations. Falling real rates encourage risk-taking; rising real rates favor safe yield over speculation.
Analogy: The price at the pump.
We track credit spreads and funding stress. If credit is calm, liquidity flows smoothly along the risk curve to bitcoin. If credit is stressed, forced selling happens, leverage unwinds, and everything correlates down.
Key insight: Credit doesn't create bull markets — it prevents crashes or allows them. Even supportive liquidity can fail during credit stress.
Analogy: The circuit breaker.
We track SPY, QQQ/ARKK, and VIX. When liquidity expands, capital flows from safe assets → equities → speculative tech → bitcoin. Risk assets confirm this transmission is happening.
Key insight: Risk markets do NOT decide the regime — they show whether capital is actually flowing along the curve.
Analogy: The speedometer.
We track the dollar index and USD/JPY. A strong dollar tightens global conditions; a weak dollar loosens them. FX supports or contradicts the macro picture but does not override it.
Analogy: Headwind or tailwind.
Key drivers receive higher weights based on their historical correlation with Bitcoin price movements.